Good morning.
Seasonal planning shouldn't be a guessing game. You have last year's numbers—use them. Here's how to plan production instead of scrambling.
Most craft breweries face pronounced seasonal demand. Summer and fall often outpace winter and spring. Taproom traffic, distributor orders, and package sales all fluctuate. Without a planning process, you either run out of key SKUs during peak or carry excess inventory through the slow months. Both erode margin. Summer and fall often outpace winter and spring. Taproom traffic, distributor orders, and package sales all fluctuate. Without a planning process, breweries either run out of key SKUs during peak periods or carry excess inventory through the slow months. Both scenarios erode margin.
The Planning Horizon
Production planning for seasonal beer requires a horizon that extends beyond the immediate brew schedule. You need to answer: When does the seasonal need to be in tank? When does it need to be packaged? When does it need to be in the market?
For a summer seasonal, that might mean knockout in March, packaging in April, and distribution by May. For a fall release, knockout in July, packaging in August, and distribution by September. The timeline depends on fermentation schedule, packaging capacity, and lead times for distribution and retail.
Using Historical Data
The best predictor of future demand is past demand—if it is recorded. Many breweries have a sense of “we sell more of X in summer” but lack the numbers to quantify it. Depletion data by SKU and by month, over at least one full year, is the foundation for seasonal planning.
Key questions:
- What was depletion by SKU last year during peak months?
- What was depletion during slow months?
- Did you run out of any SKU during peak? Did you carry excess into the slow period?
If that data lives in spreadsheets or memories rather than a structured system, the first step is to start capturing it. Going forward, every depletion—taproom, wholesale, package—should be logged. Within a year, you will have a baseline for planning.
Tank Turn Considerations
Seasonal planning is constrained by tank availability. A fermenter occupied by a summer seasonal in March is not available for a year-round beer. You need a tank schedule that allocates capacity across:
- Year-round SKUs that must maintain continuous supply.
- Seasonal SKUs that have defined start and end dates.
- One-off or limited releases that fit in the gaps.
Batch data—what is in tank, when it will be ready, when it will be packaged—feeds that schedule. Without it, planning is guesswork.
Buffer and Safety Stock
Demand forecasts are always wrong; the question is by how much. Building buffer stock for peak periods reduces the risk of stockouts. The cost of that buffer is excess inventory if demand falls short. The tradeoff depends on your margin structure and your tolerance for risk.
A practical approach: plan for slightly above your historical peak depletion, then adjust based on early-season sell-through. If a seasonal is moving faster than expected in the first two weeks, you may need to schedule an extra batch. If it is moving slower, you can delay or cancel a planned batch.
Coordination Across Channels
Taproom, wholesale, and package often have different seasonal patterns. Taproom traffic may peak in summer; wholesale may peak around holidays; package may be more stable. Production planning must account for all channels and their respective lead times. A brewery that plans only for taproom demand may find itself short when distributor orders spike.
Seasonal planning is iterative. Each year, you refine the model based on what actually happened. The breweries that do it well treat inventory and depletion data as strategic inputs, not afterthoughts.
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How BrewLedger Supports Production Planning
BrewLedger tracks batches, inventory by location, and depletion events. You can see what is in tank, what is in package, and what has moved out. That visibility supports capacity planning and seasonal scheduling. See how it works when you are ready.