Hey folks. This one is sobering, but I think it's important. As I've mentioned in previous articles, our industry has to stay adaptable (as all do) to keep up to speed.
Three breweries I know personally have closed in the last six months. I'd rather talk about what's actually happening than pretend everything is fine. Here's how I'm seeing it.
The craft beer expansion that defined the 2010s has given way to contraction. For the first time in decades, brewery closures are outpacing openings. Notable legacy brands have shut down or been acquired. The Brewers Association and industry analysts describe a "period of rationalization"—a market adjustment after years of rapid growth. Understanding the trend is critical for brewers planning for the next five years.
What the Numbers Show
Craft beer volume declined 3.9% in 2024, and dollar sales have been under pressure. Closures have accelerated while new openings have slowed. The result is a smaller, more concentrated industry. The breweries that remain are not necessarily the largest; they are often those with strong taproom economics, loyal local followings, or differentiated positioning.
Why Consolidation Is Happening
Multiple factors are at play. First, the market is saturated. The U.S. has nearly 10,000 craft breweries; many markets cannot support the density. Second, costs have risen—tariffs, inflation, labor—while pricing power has weakened. Third, consumer attention has fragmented. Craft beer competes with hard seltzers, RTDs, cannabis, and a broader "better for you" beverage set. Fourth, access to capital has tightened. Banks and investors are more cautious after years of closures and restructuring.
What It Means for Survivors
Consolidation creates both opportunity and pressure. Opportunity: fewer competitors, potential acquisition of brands or assets, and a more disciplined market. Pressure: distributors and retailers may consolidate too, reducing tap and shelf access; and the remaining breweries must be more efficient to thrive. The breweries that navigate this period successfully tend to have strong unit economics, clear differentiation, and operational discipline.
Planning for the Long Term
Breweries that assume the market will return to growth may be disappointed. The rationalization may continue for several years. Planning should assume a more competitive, cost-conscious environment. That means focus on margins, reduction of waste, and investment in channels and products that deliver sustainable returns.
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In a market like this, operational discipline matters more than ever. BrewLedger is built to support that—see how it works when you're ready.